Agricultural commodity price dynamics and their determinants: A comprehensive econometric approach

Crespo Cuaresma, J., Hlouskova, J., & Obersteiner, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6981-2769 (2021). Agricultural commodity price dynamics and their determinants: A comprehensive econometric approach. Journal of Forecasting 40 (7) 1245-1273. 10.1002/for.2768.

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Project: Metrics, Models and Foresight for European Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security (SUSFANS, H2020 633692)

Abstract

We present a comprehensive modelling framework aimed at quantifying the response of agricultural commodity prices to changes in their potential determinants. The problem of model uncertainty is assessed explicitly by concentrating on specification selection based on the quality of short-term out-of-sample forecasts (1 to 12 months ahead) for the price of wheat, soybeans and corn. Univariate and multivariate autoregressive models (autoregressive [AR], vector autoregressive [VAR] and vector error correction [VEC] specifications, estimated using frequentist and Bayesian methods), specifications with heteroskedastic errors (AR conditional heteroskedastic [ARCH] and generalized AR conditional heteroskedastic [GARCH] models) and combinations of these are entertained, including information about market fundamentals, macroeconomic and financial developments, and climatic variables. In addition, we assess potential non-linearities in the commodity price dynamics along the business cycle. Our results indicate that variables measuring market fundamentals and macroeconomic developments (and, to a lesser extent, financial developments) contain systematic predictive information for out-of-sample forecasting of commodity prices and that agricultural commodity prices react robustly to shocks in international competitiveness, as measured by changes in the real exchange rate.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA)
Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) > Exploratory Modeling of Human-natural Systems (EM)
Population and Just Societies (POPJUS)
Population and Just Societies (POPJUS) > Migration and Sustainable Development (MIG)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 21 Mar 2022 12:08
Last Modified: 21 Mar 2022 12:08
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/17882

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