The International Energy Situation and Prospects of its Further Developments

Sassin, W. (1981). The International Energy Situation and Prospects of its Further Developments. IIASA Professional Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: PP-81-014

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Abstract

IIASA's Energy Systems Program has performed an extensive analysis of the long-range global energy problem. In 1981 "Energy in a Finite World" (IIASA's Energy Systems Program 1981) was published -- a report summarizing the major findings of an international team of experts working since 1972 under the leadership of Wolf Hafele. In the format of two scenarios -- a High and a Low scenario -- the factual basis for balancing demand and supply in a cooperative world was laid down.

How to use this body of knowledge and information in the real world context -- competitive, full of conflicts, and highly discounting both in time and space -- was a spontaneous question that came up in the intense dialogue between the Energy Systems Program and many audiences in science, industry and policy making.

This paper tries to capture and order some of the suggestions put forward in this dialogue, in order to apply a long-range and global perspective to short-term national decision making.

The paper was published in German as PP-81-003 in February 1981. The conclusions then put forward seem to be supported by the political events that have occurred since, both by those in Egypt and more generally and recently in the Middle East. Default of updating of this paper to actual publication is therefore intended.

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