Climate Impact Storylines for Assessing Socio-Economic Responses to Remote Events

van den Hurk, B., Baldissera Pacchetti, M., Ciullo, A., Coulter, L., Dessai, S., Ercin, E., Goulart, H., Hamed, R., et al. (2022). Climate Impact Storylines for Assessing Socio-Economic Responses to Remote Events. SSRN Electronic Journal 10.2139/ssrn.4090562. (Submitted)

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Project: REmote Climate Effects and their Impact on European sustainability, Policy and Trade (RECEIPT, H2020 820712)


Complex interactions involving climatic features, socio-economic vulnerability or responses, and long impact transmissions are associated with substantial uncertainty. Physical climate storylines are proposed as approach to explore complex impact transmission pathways and possible alternative unfolding of event cascades under future climate conditions. These storylines are particularly useful for climate risk assessment for complex domains, including event cascades crossing multiple disciplinary or geographical borders. For an effective role in climate risks assessments, practical guidelines are needed to consistently develop and interpret the storyline event analyses.This paper elaborates on the suitability of physical climate storyline approaches involving climate event induced shocks propagating into societal impacts. It proposes a set of common elements to construct the event storylines. In addition, criteria for their application for climate risk assessment are given, referring to the need for storylines to be physically plausible, relevant for the specific context, and risk-informative.Six examples of varying scope and complexity are presented, all involving the potential climate change impact on European socio-economic sectors induced by remote climate change features occurring far outside the geographical domain of the European mainland. The storyline examples illustrate the application of the proposed storyline components and evaluates the suitability criteria defined in this paper. It thereby contributes to the standardization of the design and application of event-based climate storyline approaches.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Climate change, physical climate storylines, climate risk assessment, risk transmission
Research Programs: Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA)
Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) > Systemic Rick and Resilience (SYRR)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 13 Jun 2022 12:22
Last Modified: 13 Jun 2022 12:22

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