Modeling Approach to Long-Term Energy Demand and Energy Policy Implications for India

Parikh, J.K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0558-8427 (1981). Modeling Approach to Long-Term Energy Demand and Energy Policy Implications for India. IIASA Professional Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: PP-81-008

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Abstract

The energy sector claims nearly 27% of the public sector plan allocations in India. Other developing countries also spend similar proportions of their investments for the energy sector. Efficient management of the energy system and optimal planning for its development could result in substantial savings of plan resources. Therefore, the need for setting up a national energy modeling system was felt for quite some time within the Planning Commission of Government of India. The present study was initiated in the Planning Commission to fulfill the need for a national energy modeling system. The study was carried out during 1979 to 1980. Such a modeling system can permit a detailed look at various energy uses and options and help to identify policies for energy systems management. Considering the long gestation periods necessary for initiating and completing energy projects, a long-term perspective up to the year 2000 was considered necessary. However, while doing so, this work identifies a number of areas where certain policies decisions and action plans are required within the sixth plan period (1980-85) itself, if some of the long-term goals are to be reached by the year 2000.

The overall concept of energy modeling system developed here derives much from the energy modeling system for different world regions proposed by IIASA energy program led by Prof. Wolf Haefele, report of which is recently published in two volumes titled "Energy in a Finite World" and with which the author was associated for two and a half years. However, individual models were developed specifically for India to address the questions that concern policies at national level - and in particular for India. These are

-- SIMA model for generating macro-economic scenarios,

-- ENDIM model for simulating sectoral energy demand corresponding to macro-economic scenario generated by the SIMA model and which considers alternative policies for demand management in industries, transport, household and agriculture sectors,

-- INVEST model which identifies the conditions under which energy requirements for economic growth of India could be met.

The projections given here are to be interpreted as 'if' and 'then' statements are by no means absolute numbers. Yet, the efforts put into making various assumptions internally consistent, analyzing data at considerable disaggregated levels, understanding relationships of energy system with socio-economic developments and constructing and analyzing a number of scenarios, make this exercise useful for understanding energy system and therefore, assessing implications of various energy policies.

It is hoped that this work, with suitable modifications, also provides necessary framework for examining energy policies for other developing countries.

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