Analysis of the air pollution reduction and climate change mitigation effects of the Three-Year Action Plan for Blue Skies on the “2+26” Cities in China

Shu, Y., Hu, J., Zhang, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2487-8574, Schöpp, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5990-423X, Tang, W., Du, J., Cofala, J., Kiesewetter, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9369-9812, Sander, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6507-0630, Winiwarter, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7131-1496, Klimont, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2630-198X, Borken-Kleefeld, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5465-8559, Amann, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1963-0972, Li, H., He, Y., Zhao, J., & Xie, D. (2022). Analysis of the air pollution reduction and climate change mitigation effects of the Three-Year Action Plan for Blue Skies on the “2+26” Cities in China. Journal of Environmental Management 317 e115455. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115455.

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Abstract

City clusters play an important role in air pollutant and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction in China, primarily due to their high fossil energy consumption levels. The “2 + 26” Cities, i.e., Beijing, Tianjin and 26 other perfectures in northern China, has experienced serious air pollution in recent years. We employ the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies model adapted to the “2 + 26” Cities (GAINS-JJJ) to evaluate the impacts of structural adjustments in four major sectors, industry, energy, transport and land use, under the Three-Year Action Plan for Blue Skies (Three-Year Action Plan) on the emissions of both the major air pollutants and CO2 in the “2 + 26” Cities. The results indicate that the Three-Year Action Plan applied in the “2 + 26” Cities reduces the total emissions of primary fine particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), SO2, NOx, NH3 and CO2 by 17%, 25%, 21%, 3% and 1%, respectively, from 2017 to 2020. The emission reduction potentials vary widely across the 28 prefectures, which may be attributed to the differences in energy structure, industrial composition, and policy enforcement rate. Among the four sectors, adjustment of industrial structure attains the highest co-benefits of CO2 reduction and air pollution control due to its high CO2 reduction potential, while structural adjustments in energy and transport attain much lower co-benefits, despite their relatively high air pollutant emissions reductions, primarily resulting from an increase in the coal-electric load and associated carbon emissions caused by electric reform policies.

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