Climate Warming Mitigation from Nationally Determined Contributions

Fu, B., Li, J., Gasser, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647, Ciais, P., Piao, S., Tao, S., Shen, G., Lai, Y., Han, L., & Li, B. (2022). Climate Warming Mitigation from Nationally Determined Contributions. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 10.1007/s00376-022-1396-8.

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Abstract

Individual countries are requested to submit nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to alleviate global warming in the Paris Agreement. However, the global climate effects and regional contributions are not explicitly considered in the countries’ decision-making process. In this study, we evaluate the global temperature slowdown of the NDC scenario (ΔT = 0.6°C) and attribute the global temperature slowdown to certain regions of the world with a compact earth system model. Considering reductions in CO2, CH4, N2O, BC, and SO2, the R5OECD (the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development in 1990) and R5ASIA (Asian countries) are the top two contributors to global warming mitigation, accounting for 39.3% and 36.8%, respectively. R5LAM (Latin America and the Caribbean) and R5MAF (the Middle East and Africa) followed behind, with contributions of 11.5% and 8.9%, respectively. The remaining 3.5% is attributed to R5REF (the Reforming Economies). Carbon Dioxide emission reduction is the decisive factor of regional contributions, but not the only one. Other greenhouse gases are also important, especially for R5MAF. The contribution of short-lived aerosols is small but significant, notably SO2 reduction in R5ASIA. We argue that additional species beyond CO2 need to be considered, including short-lived pollutants, when planning a route to mitigate climate change. It needs to be emphasized that there is still a gap to achieve the Paris Agreement 2-degree target with current NDC efforts, let alone the ambitious 1.5-degree target. All countries need to pursue stricter reduction policies for a more sustainable world.

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