A systems view on national well-being and implications of COVID-19 on it

Strelkovskii, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6862-1768, Rovenskaya, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2761-3443, Ilmola-Sheppard, L., Bartmann, R., & Feitelson, E. (2022). A systems view on national well-being and implications of COVID-19 on it. In: WELL-BEING 2022 conference: Knowledge for Informed Decisions, 1-4 June, 2022, Luxembourg.

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Abstract

Recently, there has been a growing interest in national well-being (NW) as a comprehensive measure of nations' prosperity. Many countries have incorporated this concept into their policies. However, the links between various NW dimensions, which can be used to maximize synergies and reduce losses from trade-offs, have been less carefully studied. Various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) introduced by governments to curb the COVID-19 pandemic constitute a prominent example of such trade-offs. While helping to save lives, NPIs have a widespread impact on various NW facets – from social isolation to the increasing onset of depressive symptoms. Although separate effects of NPIs have been extensively studied, there is little evidence on their integral impact on NW overall. Systems thinking and its practical implementation – causal loop diagrams (CLDs) can help address this challenge. CLDs can explain indirect and cumulative effects of policies on NW variables of interest and identify critical feedback loops and leverage points. Using the OECD National Well-being Framework, Complexity Science Hub Vienna COVID-19 Control Strategies List (CCCSL), and 85 literature sources, we developed a CLD visualizing the links between COVID-19 mitigation policies and NW indicators. Its formal analysis identified the prevalence of indirect effects and feedback loops. It suggests that lockdowns have the most detrimental effect on virtually all NW aspects, while life satisfaction, perceived health, and prevalence of depressive symptoms are the most commonly affected NW aspects by all NPIs. The developed framework, especially if supported by empirical data, can be useful to minimize the adverse effects of NPIs on NW and promote its resilient recovery from any similar pandemic.

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