Institutional decarbonization scenarios evaluated against the Paris Agreement 1.5 °C goal

Brecha, R.J., Ganti, G., Lamboll, R.D., Nicholls, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4767-2723, Hare, B., Lewis, J., Meinshausen, M., Schaeffer, M., Smith, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633, & Gidden, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0687-414X (2022). Institutional decarbonization scenarios evaluated against the Paris Agreement 1.5 °C goal. Nature Communications 13 (1) art.no. 4304. 10.1038/s41467-022-31734-1.

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Abstract

Scientifically rigorous guidance to policy makers on mitigation options for meeting the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal requires an evaluation of long-term global-warming implications of greenhouse gas emissions pathways. Here we employ a uniform and transparent methodology to evaluate Paris Agreement compatibility of influential institutional emission scenarios from the grey literature, including those from Shell, BP, and the International Energy Agency. We compare a selection of these scenarios analysed with this methodology to the Integrated Assessment Model scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We harmonize emissions to a consistent base-year and account for all greenhouse gases and aerosol precursor emissions, ensuring a self-consistent comparison of climate variables. An evaluation of peak and end-of-century temperatures is made, with both being relevant to the Paris Agreement goal. Of the scenarios assessed, we find that only the IEA Net Zero 2050 scenario is aligned with the criteria for Paris Agreement consistency employed here. We investigate root causes for misalignment with these criteria based on the underlying energy system transformation.

Item Type:	Article
Research Programs:	Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Assessment and Climate Change (IACC) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Sustainable Service Systems (S3) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions (TISS)
Depositing User:	Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited:	17 Aug 2022 06:57
Last Modified:	09 Sep 2024 12:43
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/18159

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