Early systems change necessary for catalyzing long-term sustainability in a post-2030 agenda

Moallemi, E.A., Eker, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2264-132X, Gao, L., Hadjikakou, M., Liu, Q., Kwakkel, J., Reed, P.M., Obersteiner, M., et al. (2022). Early systems change necessary for catalyzing long-term sustainability in a post-2030 agenda. One Earth 5 (7) 792-811. 10.1016/j.oneear.2022.06.003.

[thumbnail of pdfft_isDTMRedir=true&download=true] Text
pdfft_isDTMRedir=true&download=true - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.

Download (43kB)
[thumbnail of ScienceDirect_files_19Aug2022_15-56-43.866.zip] Archive
ScienceDirect_files_19Aug2022_15-56-43.866.zip - Supplemental Material
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.

Download (11MB)

Abstract

Progress to date toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has fallen short of expectations and is unlikely to fully meet 2030 targets. Past assessments have mostly focused on short- and medium-term evaluations, thus limiting the ability to explore the longer-term effects of systemic interactions with time lags and delay. Here we undertake global systems modeling with a longer-term view than previous assessments in order to explore the drivers of sustainability progress and how they could play out by 2030, 2050, and 2100 under different development pathways and quantitative targets. We find that early planning for systems change to shift from business as usual to more sustainable pathways is important for accelerating progress toward increasingly ambitious targets by 2030, 2050, and 2100. These findings indicate the importance of adopting longer-term timeframes and pathways to ensure that the necessary pre-conditions are in place for sustainability beyond the current 2030 Agenda.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA)
Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) > Exploratory Modeling of Human-natural Systems (EM)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Sustainable Service Systems (S3)
Depositing User: Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited: 19 Aug 2022 15:58
Last Modified: 19 Aug 2022 15:58
URI: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/18164

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item