Emissions Lock-in, Capacity, and Public Opinion: How Insights From Political Science Can Inform Climate Modeling Efforts

Brutschin, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7040-3057 & Pianta, S. (2022). Emissions Lock-in, Capacity, and Public Opinion: How Insights From Political Science Can Inform Climate Modeling Efforts. Politics and Governance 10 (3) 186-199. 10.17645/pag.v10i3.5462.

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Project: Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions (ENGAGE, H2020 821471)

Abstract

The implementation of ambitious climate policies consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement is fundamentally influenced by political dynamics. Yet, thus far, climate mitigation pathways developed by integrated assessment models (IAMs) have devoted limited attention to the political drivers of climate policymaking. Bringing together insights from the political science and socio-technical transitions literature, we summarize evidence on how emissions lock-in, capacity, and public opinion can shape climate policy ambition. We employ a set of indicators to describe how these three factors vary across countries and regions, highlighting context-specific challenges and enablers of climate policy ambition. We outline existing studies that incorporate political factors in IAMs and propose a framework to employ empirical data to build climate mitigation scenarios that incorporate political dynamics. Our findings show that there is substantial heterogeneity in key political drivers of climate policy ambition within IAM regions, calling for a more disaggregated regional grouping within models. Importantly, we highlight that the political challenges and enablers of climate policy ambition considerably vary across regions, suggesting that future modeling efforts incorporating political dynamics can significantly increase the realism of IAM scenarios.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Special issue: Exploring Climate Policy Ambition
Uncontrolled Keywords: climate policy ambition; climate modeling; climate policymaking; climate politics; emissions lock-in; integrated assessment models; Paris Agreement; public opinion; public support; state capacity
Research Programs: Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions (TISS)
Related URLs:
Depositing User: Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited: 21 Sep 2022 11:54
Last Modified: 21 Sep 2022 11:54
URI: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/18242

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