Macroeconomic co-benefits of DRR investment: assessment using the Dynamic Model of Multi-hazard Mitigation CoBenefits (DYNAMMICs) model

Yokomatsu, M., Mochizuki, J. ORCID:, Joseph, J., Burek, P. ORCID:, & Kahil, T. ORCID: (2023). Macroeconomic co-benefits of DRR investment: assessment using the Dynamic Model of Multi-hazard Mitigation CoBenefits (DYNAMMICs) model. Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal 32 (1) 139-162. 10.1108/DPM-07-2022-0154.

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The authors present a dynamic macroeconomic model for assessment of disaster risk reduction (DRR) policies under multiple hazards. The model can be used to analyze and compare various potential policies in terms of their economic consequences. The decomposition of these effects into multiple benefits helps policy makers and other stakeholders better understand the ex ante and ex-post advantages of DRR investments. The purpose of this paper is to address these issues.

A dynamic real business cycle model is at the core of this research. In the model multiple natural hazards modeled stochastically cause shocks to the economy. Economic outcomes, most importantly, output can be assessed before and after disasters and under various DRR policies. The decomposition of benefits aims to quantify the concept of triple dividends.

In case study applications in Tanzania and Zambia, the authors find that investments into physical infrastructure and risk transfer instruments generate a variety of benefits even in the absence of disaster. A land use restriction with planned relocation for example reduces output in the short run but in the long run increases it. Overall, policy effects of various DRR interventions evolve in a nonmonotonic manner and should be evaluated over a long period of time using dynamic simulation.

The novelty of this study lies in the economic quantification of multiple benefits described in the triple dividends literature. This helps comparing ex ante, ex-post and volatility-related economic effects of multiple disasters and related physical and financial DRR investment options. As observed in the case studies, the model can also identify overlooked temporal heterogeneity of co-benefits of DRR investments.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA)
Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) > Cooperation and Transformative Governance (CAT)
Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) > Systemic Risk and Resilience (SYRR)
Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR)
Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) > Water Security (WAT)
Population and Just Societies (POPJUS)
Population and Just Societies (POPJUS) > Equity and Justice (EQU)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 23 Sep 2022 11:42
Last Modified: 09 Oct 2023 14:11

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