Greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios for major emitting countries Analysis of current climate policies and mitigation commitments: 2022 update

Nascimento, L., Kuramochi, T., Wollands, S., de Villafranca Casa, M.J., Hans, F., de Vivero, G., Fekete, H., Pelekh, N., et al. (2022). Greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios for major emitting countries Analysis of current climate policies and mitigation commitments: 2022 update. NewClimate Institute , Cologne, Germany.

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Project: Analytical Capacity on International Climate Change Mitigation and Tracking Progress of Action


The 21st session of the Conference of the Parties (COP21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) held in 2015 adopted the Paris Agreement as the main international climate policy agreement for the post-2020 period (UNCCC, 2015).
Parties to the Paris Agreement communicate Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which are pledges containing their contribution to the challenge of reducing global emissions and keeping end-of-century warming below 1.5 °C. There is no yardstick to measure the adequacy of NDCs or the actual progress towards them. Therefore, to measure progress on the implementation of countries’ policies and targets is essential to make the Paris Agreement work.
Most countries have updated their NDCs and adopted additional policies since the Paris Agreement came into force. The latest submitted targets are an improvement in comparison to the original ones but remain globally insufficient to curb global emissions (den Elzen et al., 2022a). Policies have also improved since 2015 but projections under currently adopted policies suggest emissions are still expected to increase up to 2030 (Nascimento et al., 2022). Despite these improvements, a global ambition gap exists between countries’ target and policies and the collective mitigation goals of the Paris Agreement. It is, therefore, crucial to continually track countries’ progress towards their NDCs and inform policymakers with up-to-date knowledge to ensure effective implementation of the ratcheting mechanism under the Paris Agreement.
This report is prepared by NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and IIASA and presents a preliminary assessment of progress by 25 countries toward the achievement of the mitigation components of their 2030 targets. More specifically, the report provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions up to 2030, considering existing, and in some cases planned, climate and energy policies, and compares them with the emissions implied by the NDCs. In this year’s update, we compare updated NDC submissions to the original ones submitted between 2014 and 2016 to assess how countries’ NDCs compare to each other and whether current policies are sufficient to meet them.

Item Type: Other
Research Programs: Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR)
Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) > Integrated Biosphere Futures (IBF)
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Depositing User: Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited: 11 Oct 2022 08:40
Last Modified: 11 Oct 2022 08:40

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