Long-Term Prospects for Agricultural Development in the European CMEA Countries, including the Soviet Union

Csaki, C. (1982). Long-Term Prospects for Agricultural Development in the European CMEA Countries, including the Soviet Union. IIASA Research Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-82-025

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Abstract

The current status and the development potential of agriculture in the European member countries of the CMEA, particularly the Soviet Union, have been much discussed. In this report the principal supply and demand trends, agricultural policy in the CMEA countries and expected future developments are analyzed. In sections 2-5 of the report the agricultural status in each country is discussed. Government policies on agricultural development are based on a mathematical model. The so-called CMEA Agricultural Model is an element of the model system of the Food and Agriculture Program at IIASA. The model is actually a descriptive, recursive simulation model, which is structured according to two submodels -- smaller CMEA countries and the Soviet Union -- with similar structures. Section 6 of the report describes the CMEA Agricultural Model and the two basic scenarios and additional variants computed by the model. Section 7 of the report is devoted to an analysis of future trends. The projections are made at the CMEA level -- country-specific analysis was not the aim of this study. The work was initiated and supported by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, and was used as an exploratory and background analysis for the "Agriculture: Toward 2000" project of the FAO.

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