Large uncertainty in future warming due to aerosol forcing

Watson-Parris, D. & Smith, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633 (2022). Large uncertainty in future warming due to aerosol forcing. Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-022-01516-0.

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Abstract

Despite a concerted research effort and extensive observational record, uncertainty in climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing, the two largest contributions to future warming uncertainty, remains large. Here we highlight the stark disparity that different aerosol forcing can imply for future warming projections: scenarios compatible with the Paris Agreement can either easily meet the specified warming limits or risk missing them completely using plausible samples from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report assessed uncertainty ranges. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.

Item Type:	Article
Research Programs:	Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Assessment and Climate Change (IACC)
Depositing User:	Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited:	25 Nov 2022 08:29
Last Modified:	25 Nov 2022 08:29
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/18422

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