Human capital futures in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus amid aging, depopulation, and high skilled emigration

K.C., S. & Gailey, N. (2023). Human capital futures in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus amid aging, depopulation, and high skilled emigration. IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, Austria: WP-23-003

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Abstract

Eastern Europe is a demographic frontrunner among late-stage Demographic Transition societies. The feared consequences of its aging, brain drain, and depopulation have drawn major political attention in the region. To assess the inevitability of such trends, a new multi-dimensional demographic model projects the populations of Armenia, Georgia, North Macedonia, Romania, and Ukraine. A range of futures beyond a baseline scenario were investigated, reflecting emigration intentions and desired fertility. Findings suggest that from 2020 to 2050 the five populations would decline by 5%-36% and the proportion aged 65+ would increase by 48%-99%, but concurrently see a 7%-49% relative rise in skilled human capital (vocational or tertiary education) among those aged 20-64. Depending on whether policy succeeds in helping people achieve their desired fertility or lowering brain drain pressures, these potential outcomes can become considerably more moderate or magnified.

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