Handling parameter uncertainty in long-term technology-mix planning models

Nahorski, Z., Makowski, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6107-0972, Ding, B., & Ren, H. (2023). Handling parameter uncertainty in long-term technology-mix planning models. In: 2022 IEEE 11th International Conference on Intelligent Systems (IS). pp. 1-8 IEEE. 10.1109/IS57118.2022.10019642.

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The raw material prices are key parameters of long-term technology-mix planning models. Some of such prices, in particular of the crude oil, dramatically change in periods much shorter than the planning horizon. Therefore, approaches based on price prediction methods or on price scenarios are unsuitable for planning the technology-mix because changing an implemented mix is usually impracticable; thus the mix can hardly be adapted to changing prices.The paper proposes a novel approach to handling uncertain model parameters, motivated by planning technologies for production of liquid fuels in China that is nowadays based mainly on imported crude oil. The method augments the earlier developed model by finding such a fixed crude-oil price that minimizes regret caused by inevitable difference between the assumed fixed price and actually diverse prices during operations of the planned technology mix.The paper outlines the adopted technology planning model, defines the regret function, and illustrates its use by simple examples. Thanks to the modular structure of the proposed approach, it is rather easy to experiment with diverse regret functions as well as different technology-mix models.

Item Type: Book Section
Research Programs: Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Assessment and Climate Change (IACC)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Sustainable Service Systems (S3)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 17 Feb 2023 07:34
Last Modified: 17 Feb 2023 07:34
URI: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/18632

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