Who will dominate the global fossil fuel trade?

Ostadzadeh, E., Elshorbagy, A., Tuninetti, M., Laio, F., & Abdelkader, A. (2023). Who will dominate the global fossil fuel trade? Economic Systems Research 1-22. 10.1080/09535314.2023.2174002.

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Fossil fuels are not distributed evenly throughout the world, and hence the countries rely heavily on international trade to secure energy supply. Characterization of the energy trade network is needed to conduct long-term assessments of energy security. This study proposes a modeling framework to assess the evolution of energy trade under current conditions as well as under future scenarios up to 2050. The total trade of each country is estimated with trade predictive models (TPMs) using key variables. Subsequently, a matrix-balancing method (RAS) is used to estimate the annual bilateral trades. The projected energy trade network in 2050 varies under each shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) of the future, with annual fossil fuel global trades among countries ranging between 538 and 215 EJ. Canada, USA, Venezuela, and China are projected to dominate the global trade network, with Canada-USA remaining the most dominant fossil fuel trade link up to 2050.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: energy trade modeling; Global trade networks; RAS method; trade predictive models
Research Programs: Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR)
Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) > Water Security (WAT)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 06 Mar 2023 09:35
Last Modified: 06 Mar 2023 09:35
URI: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/18654

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