Material Cycles, Industry and Service Provisioning: A Review of Low Energy and Material Demand Modelling and Scenarios

Wiedenhofer, D., Streeck, J., Wiese, F., Verdolini, E., Mastrucci, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5611-7780, Ju, Y., Boza-Kiss, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4005-2481, Min, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0020-1174, Norman, J.B., Wieland, H., Bento, N., Godoy Leon, M., Magalar, L., Mayer, A., Gingrich, S., Hayashi, A., Jupesta, J., Ünlü, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0080-7122, Niamir, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0285-5542, Cao, T., et al. (2023). Material Cycles, Industry and Service Provisioning: A Review of Low Energy and Material Demand Modelling and Scenarios. SSRN 10.2139/ssrn.4617908. (Submitted)

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Abstract

Developing transformative pathways for industry’s compliance with international climate targets requires model-based insights on how supply- and demand-side measures affect industry, material cycles, global supply chains, socio-economic activities and service provisioning supporting societal wellbeing.

Herein, we review the recent literature modelling the industrial system for Low Energy and Materials Demand (LEMD) futures, resulting in lowered environmental pressures without relying on negative emissions. We identify 77 innovative studies drawing on nine distinct industry modelling traditions and critically assess system definitions and scopes, biophysical and thermodynamic consistency, granularity and heterogeneity, and operationalization of demand and service provision. We find large potentials of combined supply- and demand-side measures to reduce current economy-wide material use by -56%, energy use by -40 to -60%, and GHG emissions by -70% to net-zero. We call for strengthening interdisciplinary collaborations between industry modelling traditions and demand-side research, to produce more insightful scenarios and discuss research challenges and recommendations.

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