Agent-based modelling of flood disaster impact for agricultural community: a case study in Pampamga river basin, republic of the Philippines

Tanaka, T., Shi, F., Catelo, M., Kawasaki, A., Yokomatsu, M., & Ohara, M. (2023). Agent-based modelling of flood disaster impact for agricultural community: a case study in Pampamga river basin, republic of the Philippines. In: Proceedings of Infrastructure Planning. pp. 1-6 Committee of Infrastructure Planning and Management.

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Abstract

We developed an agent-based model of the farming and economic behavior of rice farmers under flood risk for the assessment of climate change impacts in flood-prone farming communities. The developed model was applied to Candaba City in Pampanga Province, Republic of the Philippines to analyze the impact of flood disasters on the farming activities of each farming household under a flood scenario. Simulation of a test flood scenario showed that the assets in the flood-prone areas were significantly reduced. In the case of large-scale floods that reduce yields in the entire region, the income loss of farm households was limited to a certain extent due to the high rice prices caused by excess demand in the rice market, while the long-term asset formation of poor farm households were seriously hampered in the case of a series of small- and medium-scale floods. In terms of economic inequality, the Gini coefficient is higher for medium floods when the proportion of affected households is limited to a certain level.

Item Type:	Book Section
Research Programs:	Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) > Systemic Risk and Resilience (SYRR) Population and Just Societies (POPJUS) Population and Just Societies (POPJUS) > Equity and Justice (EQU)
Depositing User:	Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited:	31 Jan 2024 08:53
Last Modified:	31 Jan 2024 08:53
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/19464

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