Updating the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) Global Population and Human Capital Projections

K.C., S., Dhakad, M., Potančoková, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6115-5952, Adhikari, S., Yildiz, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6192-0634, Mamolo, M., Sobotka, T., Zeman, K., Abel, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4893-5687, Lutz, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7975-8145, & Goujon, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4125-6857 (2024). Updating the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) Global Population and Human Capital Projections. IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, Austria: WP-24-003

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Abstract

The first set of population projections following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) was developed in 2013. These projections have found widespread use within the environmental and climate change community, among others. In 2018, an SSPs update was generated but not integrated into the SSP database. In 2021, the SSP community requested an update of the human core of the SSPs, which is detailed in this report. This updated version is based on 2020 as the reference year, with adjustments to certain short-term assumptions extending to 2030. Consequently, the assumptions' trend component is grounded in recent observed changes.
The modeling approaches for fertility, mortality, and educational attainment have been revised. Notably, there are updates to education-specific fertility rates with new estimates. Education-specific mortality has been made specific to countries and regions. Additionally, this version introduces explicit education-specific migration differentials. The paper presents a comparison between the methodology used for developing the global population and education projections under the five SSPs and the previous method. Furthermore, a brief analysis is conducted on the primary results regarding population size and composition, with comparisons made to earlier projections and other organizations, including the United Nations Population Division.

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