Food systems transformation in Indonesia: Results on baseline and stylized scenarios from GLOBIOM

Boere, E., Derci Augustynczik, A.L., Kozicka, M. ORCID:, & Havlik, P. ORCID: (2023). Food systems transformation in Indonesia: Results on baseline and stylized scenarios from GLOBIOM. IIASA Report. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA

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As part of an effort to inform food system transformation in Indonesia and build on analytical and modelling work by BAPPENAS, FAO and others, this report contains the model description, business as usual trajectory and stylized scenarios coming from the GLOBIOM model. The report takes a food system approach where stylized scenarios follow three main policy levers, namely the healthy diets, socio-economic sustainability of agri-food supply and environmental sustainability:

1. Healthy diets – In line with the RPJMN goal of improving the quality of Indonesian diets, this axis reflects a transition towards healthier diets in Indonesia through reducing food insecurity and increasing the consumption of products that are key to a healthy diet.
2. Socioeconomic sustainability of agri-food supply – In line with the RPJMN goal of increasing food availability, this axis reflects a transition towards increased and more sustainable agricultural production that meets the needs of a growing population by increasing local agricultural production and increasing the share of domestic production in national consumption.
3. Environmental sustainability – In line with the RPJMN goals of strengthening the environment, improving climate resilience, and promoting low carbon development, this axis reflects a transition towards environmental sustainability, achieved through policies that constrain land use and reduce food loss and waste, thereby reducing GHG emissions, reducing deforestation and preserving biodiversity.

One or two policy interventions are designed along each of the axes and compared in terms of the main flagship indicators: percentage undernourished, share of food calories produced domestically (%), total value added from agriculture, forest cover and GHG emissions. The scenarios modeled are: (1) ‘POU’: A target to increase food consumption towards reducing undernourishment to 2.5% by 2030 combined with a transition towards healthier diets; (2) ‘INT’: An intensification scenario leading to increased productivity on cropland through better cultivars and an increased use of water and fertilizers; (3) ‘GHG050’: A carbon tax of 50 USD/ton on agriculture and land use emissions; (4) ‘CONS’: an extension of the moratorium policy on primary forests and peatland conversion. In addition, different combinations of the individual policy interventions are made: a target on undernourishment combined with a moratorium on primary forests (CONS_POU), a moratorium on primary forests combined with agricultural intensification (CONS_INT), a target on undernourishment combined with agricultural intensification (INT_POU), and a combined moratorium on primary forests, target on undernourishment and agricultural intensification scenario (CONS_INT_POU).

We use the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM, Havlík et al. 2014), developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), to understand the effects of policy interventions on the three axes. GLOBIOM provides a national and sub-national level picture of food system performance within the agriculture and forestry sector in Indonesia, identifying and analysing synergies and trade-offs associated with policy interventions over the medium to long term, in this case 2030-2045. The model has been updated and refined using best available data and tailored to the context of Indonesia. A consistent land use-land cover map has been built using the best land cover map available, agricultural statistics and other available spatially explicit information on land use. The list of crops has been extended compared to the standard version of GLOBIOM to better represent the land use dynamics and demands for the main commodities in international markets. A comparison of the most important agricultural and land use items and indicators shows that GLOBIOM follows both the trend and absolute changes of the land use, land use dynamics, GHG emissions, production, consumption, and trade over the historical reference period of 2000-2020 well.

Business as usual results
GLOBIOM’s business as usual trajectory show that, due to the foreseen growth in GDP, production and value added, the percentage of undernourished decreases steadily over the time horizon, from 9% in 2020 to 5.7% in 2030 and 1.4% in 2045 under a no intervention scenario. Agricultural yields and value added measured in real terms continue to increase over the time horizon, by 13.8% in 2030 and 42% in 2045 compared to the 2020 value added. This is a lot smaller than the relative increase in real value added of 118% that GLOBIOM-Indonesia simulated over the 2000-2020 period.
Regarding the flagship indicators for the environment, emissions show a decrease compared to 2020, by 17% in 2030 and by 10% in 2045. This decrease in emissions is largely due to the sharp decrease in emissions from land cover change, mostly resulting from reduced deforestation and from the reduced draining of peatlands for agricultural conversion. Primary forests decrease by 2.4% in 2030 and 3.6% in 2045 compared to the 2020. Natural land decreases by 5.8% in 2030 and 17.4% in 2045. The land from these land covers shifts to agriculture, livestock and forestry production: plantation oil palm (+6.7% in 2030 and +18% in 2045), forest plantations (+9.5% in 2030 and +25.5% in 2045), cropland (+2.4% in 2030 and +10.9% in 2045) and a small increase in grassland for livestock production (+1.1% in 2030 and +7.6% in 2045).

Scenario results
Based on the stylized scenarios and their comparison regarding the main flagship indicators and the three axes, the following conclusions and policy recommendations can be drawn:
In the short term, to reach the goal of lower undernourishment and promoting healthier diets, it is particularly important to target and implement policy measures that directly impact consumers. Targeting consumers directly can lead to a reduction in the percentage of undernourished from 5.7% under the business as usual trajectory to 2.8% by 2030. Focusing on agricultural producers through the enhancement of yields will only lead to a reduction in the percentage undernourished to 5.3% by 2030.
Intensification measures may not be effective in reducing undernourishment and promoting healthier food choices, as the increased production is partly directed towards cash crops and exports . Under the intensification scenario, production increases are concentrated in coffee and soy. Under the reduction in undernourishment scenario, production increases are observed primarily for rice, soy and sweet potatoes, crops that directly benefit consumption. Therefore, well-targeted policies towards not only reducing undernourishment but also improving diets will lead to more calorie and nutrient rich consumption patterns compared to an intensification scenario where the focus is purely on increasing agricultural production.
Scenarios focused solely on the environment result in slight increases in the percentage of undernourished individuals, especially in the longer term. This is because environmental policies that limit land cover conversion or put a price on emissions from agriculture and land use activities reduce the amount of productive land available for conversion to cropland and increase production costs.

Regarding the socio-economic sustainability of the agri-food system, we find that different crops will benefit from either agricultural intensification or support to consumers. Cash crops like coffee and crops used to feed livestock such as soybeans will gain in terms of value added, by respectively 59.4% and 57.4% by 2030 under an intensification scenario. On the other hand, root crops like cassava and sweet potatoes, which are healthy staple foods, will gain in value added, by respectively 25.5% and 18.4% by 2030 under a scenario with higher demand for these types of crops (POU). Under a combined scenario with both POU and intensification, both cash crops and root crops will gain in value added. At the same time, food prices go down in the INT_POU scenario, leading to cost savings for the government in case of food subsidies to meet the targeted reduction in undernourishment.

Regarding environmental sustainability, a scenario focusing only on a decrease in undernourishment leads to an increase in the cropland extent and in emissions. Cropland expansion is driven by the additional demand for certain crops (+0.5mln ha compared to the base in 2030 and +0.49mln ha compared to the base by 2045).
If primary forests are subject to a moratorium, other potentially biodiverse-rich land covers, like natural lands are likely to be converted more. Combining scenarios can mitigate negative emissions effects compared to a business-as-usual scenario, but may not achieve individual goals (e.g. no reduced deforestation under CONS-INT-POU). In both the short and long term, a conservation scenario is the most effective in "saving" primary forests (+1.9% or nearly 1 million hectares (0.97) by 2030 and +1.8% or 1.2 million ha by 2045) compared to a carbon tax (+0.3% or 147,000 hectares by 2030 or +1.4% or 665 thousand ha by 2045). However, a conservation scenario also leads to a reduction in natural land (-0.6% or 146,000 hectares), which is not covered by the moratorium. A conservation and intensification scenario leads to the largest gains in primary forests (+2.3% or 1.2 million hectares by 2030 and up to 2 million ha by 2045) and natural land (+1.1% or 276,000 hectares by 2030 or 786 thousand ha by 2045). When also combining these two objectives with a target on reducing undernourishment, it becomes possible to reduce emissions, particularly those caused by changes in land cover, without increasing the percentage of undernourished people.
The analysis of policy interventions and its outcomes primarily focuses on the national level. However, implementing these interventions across Indonesia, being an archipelago, could lead to increased transaction costs, such as higher food distribution expenses. Currently, most of the food production occurs in Java. Initial findings from GLOBIOM suggest that targeting these food producing hotspots can yield quick wins in terms of e.g. food production and food availability. Nonetheless, regions outside of Java have the highest rates of undernourishment, indicating the need for further research to explore regional variations in meeting policy objectives.

Item Type: Monograph (IIASA Report)
Research Programs: Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR)
Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) > Integrated Biosphere Futures (IBF)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 22 Feb 2024 06:31
Last Modified: 22 Feb 2024 14:41

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