A review of existing model-based scenarios achieving SDGs: progress and challenges

Orbons, K., van Vuuren, D.P., Ambrosio, G., Kulkarni, S., Weber, E., Zapata, V., Daioglou, V., Hof, A.F., et al. (2024). A review of existing model-based scenarios achieving SDGs: progress and challenges. Global Sustainability 7 10.1017/sus.2023.20.

[thumbnail of a-review-of-existing-model-based-scenarios-achieving-sdgs-progress-and-challenges.pdf]
a-review-of-existing-model-based-scenarios-achieving-sdgs-progress-and-challenges.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.

Download (443kB) | Preview
Project: Project on Integrated Assessment model-based Scenarios for Sustainable development Objectives (PICASSO, H2020 819566)


In 2015, the United Nations articulated the ambition to move toward a prosperous, socially inclusive, and environmentally sustainable future for all by adopting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, little is known about the pathways that could lead to their concurrent achievement. We provide an overview of the current literature on quantitative pathways toward the SDGs, indicate the commonly used methods and indicators, and identify the most comprehensive pathways that have been published to date. Our results indicate that there is a need for more scenarios toward the full set of SDGs, using a wider range of underlying narratives.

Technical Summary
Quantitative goal-seeking scenario studies could help to explore the needed systems' transformations to implement the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development by identifying enabling conditions and accounting for the synergies and trade-offs between the SDGs. Given that the SDGs were adopted some time ago, here, we review the existing global scenario literature to determine what it can offer in this context. We found only a few scenarios that address a large set of SDGs, while many more deal with specific clusters of 2–6 SDGs. We identified the most frequent clusters and compared the results of the most comprehensive sustainable development scenarios. The latter is complicated because of the diversity of methods, indicators, and assumptions used. Therefore, we suggest that an effort is needed to develop a wider set of scenarios that would achieve multiple SDGs, using a more standardized framework of targets and indicators.

Social Media Summary
This study reviews the current global pathways toward the SDGs and shows the need for a broader set of SDG scenarios.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: adaptation and mitigation; earth systems (land; water; and atmospheric); food security; modelling and simulation; policies; politics and governance
Research Programs: Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions (TISS)
Population and Just Societies (POPJUS)
Population and Just Societies (POPJUS) > Equity and Justice (EQU)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 28 Feb 2024 09:27
Last Modified: 28 Feb 2024 09:27
URI: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/19529

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item