Emergent constraints on carbon budgets as a function of global warming

Cox, P.M., Williamson, M.S., Friedlingstein, P., Jones, C.D., Raoult, N., Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, & Varney, R.M. (2024). Emergent constraints on carbon budgets as a function of global warming. Nature Communications 15 (1) e1885. 10.1038/s41467-024-46137-7.

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Project: Earth system models for the future (ESM2025, H2020 101003536)


Earth System Models (ESMs) continue to diagnose a wide range of carbon budgets for each level of global warming. Here, we present emergent constraints on the carbon budget as a function of global warming, which combine the available ESM historical simulations and future projections for a range of scenarios, with observational estimates of global warming and anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the present day. We estimate mean and likely ranges for cumulative carbon budgets for the Paris targets of 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming of 812 [691, 933] PgC and 1048 [881, 1216] PgC, which are more than 10% larger than the ensemble mean values from the CMIP6 models. The linearity between cumulative emissions and global warming is found to be maintained at least until 4 °C, and is consistent with an effective Transient Climate Response to Emissions (eTCRE) of 2.1 [1.8, 2.6] °C/1000PgC, from a global warming of 1.2 °C onwards.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Assessment and Climate Change (IACC)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions (TISS)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 04 Mar 2024 08:31
Last Modified: 04 Mar 2024 08:31
URI: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/19537

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