Interactions between atmospheric composition and climate change – progress in understanding and future opportunities from AerChemMIP, PDRMIP, and RFMIP

Fiedler, S., Naik, V., O'Connor, F.M., Smith, C.J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633, Griffiths, P., Kramer, R.J., Takemura, T., Allen, R.J., Im, U., Kasoar, M., Modak, A., Turnock, S., Voulgarakis, A., Watson-Parris, D.., Westervelt, D.M., Wilcox, L.J., Zhao, A., Collins, W.J., Schulz, M., Myhre, G., et al. (2024). Interactions between atmospheric composition and climate change – progress in understanding and future opportunities from AerChemMIP, PDRMIP, and RFMIP. Geoscientific Model Development 17 (6) 2387-2417. 10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024.

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Abstract

he climate science community aims to improve our understanding of climate change due to anthropogenic influences on atmospheric composition and the Earth's surface. Yet not all climate interactions are fully understood, and uncertainty in climate model results persists, as assessed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We synthesize current challenges and emphasize opportunities for advancing our understanding of the interactions between atmospheric composition, air quality, and climate change, as well as for quantifying model diversity. Our perspective is based on expert views from three multi-model intercomparison projects (MIPs) – the Precipitation Driver Response MIP (PDRMIP), the Aerosol Chemistry MIP (AerChemMIP), and the Radiative Forcing MIP (RFMIP). While there are many shared interests and specializations across the MIPs, they have their own scientific foci and specific approaches. The partial overlap between the MIPs proved useful for advancing the understanding of the perturbation–response paradigm through multi-model ensembles of Earth system models of varying complexity. We discuss the challenges of gaining insights from Earth system models that face computational and process representation limits and provide guidance from our lessons learned. Promising ideas to overcome some long-standing challenges in the near future are kilometer-scale experiments to better simulate circulation-dependent processes where it is possible and machine learning approaches where they are needed, e.g., for faster and better subgrid-scale parameterizations and pattern recognition in big data. New model constraints can arise from augmented observational products that leverage multiple datasets with machine learning approaches. Future MIPs can develop smart experiment protocols that strive towards an optimal trade-off between the resolution, complexity, and number of simulations and their length and, thereby, help to advance the understanding of climate change and its impacts.

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