Gravity Models for Global Migration Flows: A Predictive Evaluation

Caballero Reina, J., Crespo Cuaresma, J., Fenz, K., Zellmann, J., Yankov, T., & Taha, A. (2024). Gravity Models for Global Migration Flows: A Predictive Evaluation. Population Research and Policy Review 43 (2) e29. 10.1007/s11113-024-09867-6.

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This study introduces a comprehensive econometric framework based on gravity equations and designed to forecast migrant flows between countries. The model’s theoretical underpinnings are validated through empirical data, and we show that the model has better out-of-sample predictive ability than alternative global models. We explore the quantitative effects of various socioeconomic, demographic, and geographic factors on migration and illustrate its use to obtain scenario-driven projections of bilateral migration, assessing the potential contributions of migration to population and GDP dynamics in Germany and Portugal for the period 2021–2025. Our projection results highlight the critical role of immigration in sustaining population levels and economic growth, particularly in the context of ageing populations and decreasing fertility rates across Europe.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Migration; Gravity model; Economic growth; Forecasting
Research Programs: Population and Just Societies (POPJUS)
Population and Just Societies (POPJUS) > Migration and Sustainable Development (MIG)
Depositing User: Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited: 08 Apr 2024 07:52
Last Modified: 08 Apr 2024 07:52

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