MESSAGEix-Materials v1.0.0: Representation of Material Flows and Stocks in an Integrated Assessment Model

Ünlü, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0080-7122, Maczek, F., Min, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0020-1174, Frank, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5702-8547, Glatter, F., Kishimoto, P.N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8578-753X, Streeck, J., Eisenmenger, N., Krey, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0307-3515, & Wiedenhofer, D. (2024). MESSAGEix-Materials v1.0.0: Representation of Material Flows and Stocks in an Integrated Assessment Model. Preprint 10.5194/egusphere-2023-3035. (Submitted)

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Abstract

Extracting and processing raw materials into products in industry is a substantial source of CO2 emissions, which currently lacks process detail in many integrated assessment models (IAMs). To broaden the space of climate change mitigation options and to include circular economy and material efficiency measures in IAM scenario analysis, we developed MESSAGEix-Materials module representing material flows and stocks within the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM IAM framework. With the development of MESSAGEix-Materials, we provide a fully open-source model that can assess different industry decarbonization options under various climate targets for the most energy and emissions-intensive industries: Aluminium, iron and steel, cement, and petrochemicals. We illustrate the model’s operation with a baseline and mitigation (2 degrees) scenario setup and validate base year results for 2020 against historical datasets. We also discuss the industry decarbonization pathways and material stocks of the electricity generation technologies resulting from the new model features.

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