Climate damage projections beyond annual temperature

Waidelich, P., Batibeniz, F., Rising, J., Kikstra, J.S. ORCID:, & Seneviratne, S.I. (2024). Climate damage projections beyond annual temperature. Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-01990-8. (In Press)

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Project: Effective green financial policies for the low-carbon transition (GREEFIN, H2020 948220)


Estimates of global economic damage from climate change assess the effect of annual temperature changes. However, the roles of precipitation, temperature variability and extreme events are not yet known. Here, by combining projections of climate models with empirical dose–response functions translating shifts in temperature means and variability, rainfall patterns and extreme precipitation into economic damage, we show that at +3 °C global average losses reach 10% of gross domestic product, with worst effects (up to 17%) in poorer, low-latitude countries. Relative to annual temperature damage, the additional impacts of projecting variability and extremes are smaller and dominated by interannual variability, especially at lower latitudes. However, accounting for variability and extremes when estimating the temperature dose–response function raises global economic losses by nearly two percentage points and exacerbates economic tail risks. These results call for region-specific risk assessments and the integration of other climate variables for a better understanding of climate change impacts.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Assessment and Climate Change (IACC)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Sustainable Service Systems (S3)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions (TISS)
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Depositing User: Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited: 18 Apr 2024 08:27
Last Modified: 18 Apr 2024 08:27

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