Mapping the climate risk to urban forests at city scale

Esperon-Rodriguez, M., Gallagher, R.V., Souverijns, N., Lejeune, Q., Schleussner, C.-F., & Tjoelker, M.G. (2024). Mapping the climate risk to urban forests at city scale. Landscape and Urban Planning 248 e105090. 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2024.105090.

[thumbnail of 1-s2.0-S0169204624000896-main.pdf]
1-s2.0-S0169204624000896-main.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.

Download (1MB) | Preview
Project: Paris Agreement Overshooting – Reversibility, Climate Impacts and Adaptation Needs (PROVIDE, H2020 101003687)


Climate change represents a threat to the performance and persistence of urban forests and the multiple benefits they provide to city dwellers. Here, we use a novel approach to identify species and areas at high risk of climate change using the city of Melbourne, Australia, as a case study. We derive a safety margin, calculated based on climatic tolerance to two extreme climate variables (maximum temperature of the warmest month, MTWM; precipitation of the driest quarter, PDQ), for 474 tree species recorded in Melbourne for baseline (average for 2011–2020) and future (2041–2070) climatic conditions. For MTWM, 218 species (46%) are exceeding baseline climatic safety margins; this number is predicted to increase to 322 species (68%) by 2055 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5. For PDQ, 255 and 257 species (54%) are identified as at risk for baseline and future climates, respectively. Using georeferenced locations of trees and high-resolution climate data, we map spatial patterns in climate risk, showing high risk areas across the city. We demonstrate how using urban tree inventories and climate risk metrics can aid in the identification of vulnerable species and locations at high climate risk to prioritise areas for monitoring and assist urban planning.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Climate change; Maximum temperature; Precipitation; Safety margin; Species selection; Urban heat; Urban tree
Research Programs: Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Climate Impacts (ICI)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 22 Apr 2024 07:18
Last Modified: 22 Apr 2024 07:18

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item