A gap approach for preventing stress in complex systems: managing natural hazard induced fiscal risks under a changing climate

Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Mechler, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2239-1578, Deubelli, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7765-0552, Calliari, E., & Sakic Trogrlic, R. (2024). A gap approach for preventing stress in complex systems: managing natural hazard induced fiscal risks under a changing climate. Frontiers in Sustainable Resource Management 3 10.3389/fsrma.2024.1393667.

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Project: REmote Climate Effects and their Impact on European sustainability, Policy and Trade (RECEIPT, H2020 820712), Multi-hazard risk management through interoperability and co-creation (DIRECTED, HE 101073978)


Disasters associated with natural hazards as well as climate change are happening within complex socio-economic systems and desired system states, including sustainable development and resource management, are formulated on the global as well as regional and national levels. However, complex system approaches are yet only rudimentarily incorporated in related applications, and we discuss modeling as well as policy challenges focusing on fiscal risk. As an intermediate step we suggest a gap approach which we relate to fiscal stress levels a complex system may experience due to natural hazard events. We argue that in case of no gaps one can assume a no stress situation and therefore modeling of disruptions including cascading effects is less necessary. However, at the same time we also acknowledge that there is an urgent need to address corresponding challenges with complex system methods. Policy-wise our paper responds to concerns for real-world applications and can provide insights to support current discussions within the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement around both adaptation finance and the new funding arrangements for loss and damage from climate impacts established at COP27.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA)
Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) > Systemic Risk and Resilience (SYRR)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 09 May 2024 10:17
Last Modified: 21 May 2024 09:10
URI: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/19706

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