A model-based measure for the resilience of resource use under the risk of disruption

Kuhn, M. & Wrzaczek, S. (2024). A model-based measure for the resilience of resource use under the risk of disruption. IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, Austria: WP-24-009

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Abstract

While useful conceptualizations and measures have been developed that allow to assess the resilience to shocks of eco systems, socioeconomic systems or individuals, these are often context-specific, some￾what ad-hoc, focused on only certain dimensions of resilience, and not always easy to apply to the assessment of concrete policies. In this paper, we build on a simple yet general model of resource use under the risk of potentially catastrophic disruptions, and derive a rigorous, comprehensive, and policy-oriented measure of socio￾economic resilience. By way of numerical analysis, we illustrate how the measure captures the key aspects of resistance, recovery and robustness; how it embraces current resilience and the continuation resilience following future shocks; and how it can be employed to study the resilience of different harvesting policies both from an ex-ante perspective and following a cascade of shocks.

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