Human heat stress could offset potential economic benefits of CO2 fertilization in crop production under a high-emissions scenario

Orlov, A., Jägermeyr, J., Müller, C., Daloz, A.S., Zabel, F., Minoli, S., Liu, W., Lin, T.-S., Jain, A.K., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Okada, M., Poschlod, B., Smerald, A., Schneider, J.M., & Sillmann, J. (2024). Human heat stress could offset potential economic benefits of CO2 fertilization in crop production under a high-emissions scenario. One Earth 7 (7) 1250-1265. 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.06.012.

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Abstract

Climate change can significantly affect food production in many ways. Changes in greenhouse gases, temperature, and rainfall directly influence crop productivity, sometimes increasing yield through a mechanism known as the carbon dioxide fertilization effect. However, agricultural production in many countries also relies on physically demanding manual labor, primarily outside, and, as temperatures rise, heat stress on agricultural workers can reduce labor capacity. Consequential climate change impacts on food availability and affordability are a major societal concern, yet the specific and combined impacts on agricultural production remain highly uncertain. An assessment of the future impacts of climate change on the production and prices of four of the world’s most consumed crops (maize, wheat, soybean, and rice) reveals that a rise in heat stress will lower agricultural labor capacity and increase labor costs in Africa and Asia. This could offset the potential economic benefits of higher yields due to elevated levels of CO2. Proactive adaptation measures, such as mechanization deployment, are needed to reduce the vulnerability to heat stress.

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