Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints

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Bertram, C., Brutschin, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7040-3057, Drouet, L., Luderer, G., van Ruijven, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1232-5892, Aleluia Reis, L., Baptista, L.B., de Boer, H.-S., Cui, R., Daioglou, V., Fosse, F., Fragkiadakis, D., Fricko, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6835-9883, Fujimori, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-1796, Hultman, N., Iyer, G., Keramidas, K., Krey, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0307-3515, Kriegler, E., Lamboll, R.D., et al. (2024). Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints. Nature Climate Change 14 954-960. 10.1038/s41558-024-02073-4.

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Project: Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions (ENGAGE, H2020 821471)

Abstract

Despite faster-than-expected progress in clean energy technology deployment, global annual CO2 emissions have increased from 2020 to 2023. The feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5 °C is therefore questioned. Here we present a model intercomparison study that accounts for emissions trends until 2023 and compares cost-effective scenarios to alternative scenarios with institutional, geophysical and technological feasibility constraints and enablers informed by previous literature. Our results show that the most ambitious mitigation trajectories with updated climate information still manage to limit peak warming to below 1.6 °C (‘low overshoot’) with around 50% likelihood. However, feasibility constraints, especially in the institutional dimension, decrease this maximum likelihood considerably to 5–45%. Accelerated energy demand transformation can reduce costs for staying below 2 °C but have only a limited impact on further increasing the likelihood of limiting warming to 1.6 °C. Our study helps to establish a new benchmark of mitigation scenarios that goes beyond the dominant cost-effective scenario design.

Item Type:	Article
Research Programs:	Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Assessment and Climate Change (IACC) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Sustainable Service Systems (S3) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions (TISS)
Related URLs:	Dataset - https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11562539
Depositing User:	Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited:	12 Aug 2024 12:55
Last Modified:	07 Oct 2024 12:07
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/19930

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