Industry Transformations for High Service Provisioning with Lower Energy and Material Demand: A Review of Models and Scenarios

Wiedenhofer, D., Streeck, J., Wiese, F., Verdolini, E., Mastrucci, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5611-7780, Ju, Y., Boza-Kiss, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4005-2481, Min, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0020-1174, Norman, J.B., Wieland, H., Bento, N., Godoy León, M.F., Magalar, L., Mayer, A., Gingrich, S., Hayashi, A., Jupesta, J., Ünlü, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0080-7122, Niamir, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0285-5542, Cao, T., et al. (2024). Industry Transformations for High Service Provisioning with Lower Energy and Material Demand: A Review of Models and Scenarios. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 10.1146/annurev-environ-110822-044428. (In Press)

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Abstract

Developing transformative pathways for industry's compliance with international climate targets requires model-based insights into how supply- and demand-side measures affect industry, material cycles, global supply chains, socioeconomic activities, and service provisioning that support societal well-being. We review the recent literature modeling the industrial system in low energy and material demand futures, which mitigates environmental impacts without relying on risky future negative emissions and technological fixes. We identify 77 innovative studies drawing on nine distinct industry modeling traditions. We critically assess system definitions and scopes, biophysical and thermodynamic consistency, granularity and heterogeneity, and operationalization of demand and service provisioning. We find that combined supply- and demand-side measures could reduce current economy-wide material use by 56%, energy use by 40% to 60%, and greenhouse gas emissions by 70% to net zero. We call for strengthened interdisciplinary collaborations between industry modeling traditions and demand-side research to produce more insightful scenarios, and we discuss challenges and recommendations for this emerging field.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	climate change mitigation, sustainable resource use, integrated assessment modeling (IAM), ecological economics, industrial ecology
Research Programs:	Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Assessment and Climate Change (IACC) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Sustainable Service Systems (S3) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions (TISS)
Depositing User:	Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited:	17 Sep 2024 10:06
Last Modified:	19 Sep 2024 06:01
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/19988

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