A Multistate Manpower Projection Model

Pelling, M. (1982). A Multistate Manpower Projection Model. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-82-012

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Abstract

This paper describes the structure and application of a multistate projection model that was developed by the Operational Research Service of the Department of Health and Social Security, UK. The model can be used to calculate the evolution of a multistate manpower or population distribution, with each state's stock classified either by length of time in a state or by age and subdivided into up to four noninteracting population subgroups (e.g., according to sex and country of origin). Both Markov ("push") and Renewal ("pull") flows can be simulated and a wide range of different network configurations can be modeled.

Medical manpower planning problems are also discussed--in particular the issue of career planning for doctors in the presence of demand constraints--to exemplify the possible uses of the model. As background, the role of manpower planning in health care planning and the sorts of problems that arise in balancing the supply of, and demand for, any manpower group are outlined.

The generality of the Department of Health and Social Security model is demonstrated by highlighting its structural similarity to the multistate models that have been the subject of study at IIASA in recent years. The model's uses in detecting both potential manpower supply instabilities in market-based manpower systems and planning in feasibilities in planned systems are pointed out. A model run is discussed, based on a hypothetical situation, in which growth rates of one grade in a manpower network lead to supply problems for the whole network. The Appendix contains sample input and output files.

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