Adjustments to Climate Perturbations—Mechanisms, Implications, Observational Constraints

Quaas, J., Andrews, T., Bellouin, N., Block, K., Boucher, O., Ceppi, P., Dagan, G., Doktorowski, S., Eichholz, H.M., Forster, P., Goren, T., Gryspeerdt, E., Hodnebrog, Ø., Jia, H., Kramer, R., Lange, C., Maycock, A.C., Mülmenstädt, J., Myhre, G., O’Connor, F.M., et al. (2024). Adjustments to Climate Perturbations—Mechanisms, Implications, Observational Constraints. AGU Advances 5 (5) e2023AV001144. 10.1029/2023AV001144.

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Abstract

Since the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR5) an extended concept of the energetic analysis of climate change including forcings, feedbacks and adjustment processes has become widely adopted. Adjustments are defined as processes that occur in response to the introduction of a climate forcing agent, but that are independent of global-mean surface temperature changes. Most considered are the adjustments that impact the Earth energy budget and strengthen or weaken the instantaneous radiative forcing due to the forcing agent. Some adjustment mechanisms also impact other aspects of climate not related to the Earth radiation budget. Since AR5 and a following description by Sherwood et al. (2015, ), much research on adjustments has been performed and is reviewed here. We classify the adjustment mechanisms into six main categories, and discuss methods of quantifying these adjustments in terms of their potentials, shortcomings and practicality. We furthermore describe aspects of adjustments that act beyond the energetic framework, and we propose new ideas to observe adjustments or to make use of observations to constrain their representation in models. Altogether, the problem of adjustments is now on a robust scientific footing, and better quantification and observational constraint is possible. This allows for improvements in understanding and quantifying climate change.

Climate change is driven by perturbations to the atmospheric composition, to land use, or by changes of incoming solar radiation. It can be understood energetically by quantifying the perturbation to the Earth energy budget-the instantaneous radiative forcing-and the response of the climate system to this perturbation. This response can be split into feedbacks-mechanisms that act in response to global-mean surface temperature changes-and other processes that act independently of the global-mean surface temperature change. These latter processes are called adjustments. There is also a category of climate-relevant adjustments that is not directly related to the energy budget. This review documents the improved classification, understanding, constraint, and quantification of adjustments. A clearer picture of adjustments allows to better understand and quantify climate change.

Adjustments impact the Earth energy budget, but also circulation, precipitation and atmospheric structure Adjustments are classified into six different mechanisms and act at time scales ranging from seconds to multiple years Observational constraints can inform on some aspects of adjustments

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