The Role of Emigration and Migration in Swedish Industrialization - Some Preliminary Results using a Computable General Equilibrium Model

Karlstrom, U. (1982). The Role of Emigration and Migration in Swedish Industrialization - Some Preliminary Results using a Computable General Equilibrium Model. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-82-004

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Abstract

This paper discusses some preliminary results of the Swedish case study of the Population, Resources, and Growth Task. The study highlights the Swedish demoeconomic development during its first phase of industrialization, the pre-World War I period, with specific emphasis on an analysis of the economic consequences of rural-to-urban migration and emigration. The paper starts with a short review of the model that has been developed--a so-called numerical general equilibrium model, especially designed to capture Swedish development. Results of simulations over a 20 year period are given. After discussing the capability of the model to capture the Swedish development, some policy analyses are carried out through counterfactual simulations, both in a static and a dynamic setting. Three dynamic simulations are undertaken to analyze the role of rural-to-urban migration and emigration in Swedish industrialization, and some preliminary results are presented concerning their importance for the development of the Swedish economy.

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