Scenario framework for TEN-N, translation of NFF storylines into indicators and scenario settings

Fornarini, C., D'Alessio, A., Dertien, J., Fernandez, N., Moreira, F., Namasivayam, A.S., O'Connor, L., Pereira, H., Verburg, P., & Rondinini, C. (2024). Scenario framework for TEN-N, translation of NFF storylines into indicators and scenario settings. Pensoft Publishers 10.3897/arphapreprints.e134026.

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Abstract

A key goal of the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 is the design of a connected Trans European Nature Network (TEN-N), that helps to build a coherent and resilient network of protected areas across Europe. The TEN-N will need to consider and integrate societal perspectives on future biodiversity protection in Europe, accounting for multiple values and perspectives of nature. The NaturaConnect project, through a process of co-design with stakeholders, is developing narratives on future nature protection in Europe using the Nature Futures Framework (NFF). In this framework. three value perspectives of nature are presented at each corner of a triangle: Nature for Nature, Nature as Culture, and Nature for Society. By using this framework, NaturaConnect aligns with global efforts on scenario development auspicated by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). This report outlines the development of scenario narratives for Europe of the NaturaConnect project. The development of the narratives considered the global and European policy context as a starting point, and included a stakeholder engagement process conducted to elicit stakeholders' preferences and visions in relation to future nature conservation and management in Europe. These narratives present contrasting perspectives and priorities for seven themes: Protected areas, Connectivity and Restoration, Forestry, Freshwater ecosystems, Urban system, Agriculture, Energy. These topics are key to building a more positive future for nature and people. Besides specificities for each narrative, we also identify commonalities across the three perspectives, including macroeconomic trend assumptions, biodiversity strategic goals of the European Union and shared solutions that are necessary to achieve any positive nature future.

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