Prospective metal requirements assessment of China's wind-power and photovoltaics: Implications for emerging anthropogenic mines

Ren, K., Tang, X., Huang, C., Willerström, J., & Höök, M. (2025). Prospective metal requirements assessment of China's wind-power and photovoltaics: Implications for emerging anthropogenic mines. Resources, Conservation and Recycling 215 e108088. 10.1016/j.resconrec.2024.108088.

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Abstract

China's carbon neutrality target requires large-scale deployment of wind-power and photovoltaics (PV) technologies. The uncertainties of their pathways will not only trigger potential metal supply-demand mismatch, but also hinder the better understanding of future anthropogenic mines. Here, we conducted a prospective assessment of metal requirements under multi-model comparison framework (MMCF). The results show that:(1) The installed capacities of China's wind-power and PV are 1900 GW respectively 3100 GW by 2060 averagely under MMCF. (2) Overall metal requirement of China's wind-power and PV sector is estimated at 0.88–1.38 billion tons from 2000 to 2060. (3) The scale of anthropogenic mine in China's wind-power and PV sector is around 0.56–0.72 billion tons by 2060. (4) Secondary base metals and scarce metals account for 19–21 % respectively 23–26 % of total metal inflow when the contribution of metal recyling is taken into consideration. We highlight that the policies of energy-metal nexus are neglected nowadays, while they need strengthening to deal with the issue of emerging anthropogenic mines in energy sector.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Prospective metal requirement assessment, Carbon neutrality, Energy development pathways’ uncertainties, Resource management, Anthropogenic mineral
Research Programs: Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Pollution Management (PM)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 07 Jan 2025 09:22
Last Modified: 07 Jan 2025 09:22
URI: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/20220

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