Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints

Bertram, C., Brutschin, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7040-3057, DROUET, L., Luderer, G., van Ruijven, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1232-5892, Aleluia Reis, L., Baptista, L., de Boer, H., Cui, R., Daioglou, V., Fosse, F., Fragkiadakis, D., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-1796, Hultman, N., Iyer, G., Keramidas, K., Krey, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0307-3515, Kriegler, E., Lamboll, R., et al. (2024). Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints. 10.5281/zenodo.11562538.

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Abstract

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Data set description

This data set includes global climate change mitigation scenarios as summarized by Bertram et al., 2024. The scenarios are developed as part of the ENGAGE project, and explore a wide set of dedicated feasibility assumptions along the institutional, technological, geophysical, and socio-cultural dimensions. In terms of mitigation ambition, the study follows the "net-zero budget" approach from Riahi et al. 2021 and contrasts both a below 2°C scenario (defined as 1000 Gt CO2 from 2018 until reaching net-zero CO2 emissions globally), and a scenario exploring the lowest possible peak temperature (aiming for a 550 Gt CO2 net-zero budget).

Author Contributions

C.B., E.B. and K.R. designed the study with input by L.D., E.K., G.L., B.v.R., R.S., D.v.V. and Z.V.; E.B. and C.B. prepared the governance input data for the IAMs; C.B., E.B., L.D., B.v.R., L.A.R., L.B.B., H.-S.d.B., V.D., F.F., D.F., O.F., S.F., K.K., V.K., R.M., P.R., R.S., D.S., I.T. and Z.V. produced the IAM scenario results; R.C., G.I. and N.H. provided a review of results and framing; R.D.L. and J.R. provided temperature probabilities as a function of carbon budgets; C.B. performed the data analysis and produced the plots with input by E.B. and L.D.; C.B. wrote the first draft and all authors contributed to writing the paper.

Acknowledgments

This research received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement number 821471 (ENGAGE) (C.B., E.B., L.D., G.L., B.v.R., L.A.R., L.B.B., H.-S.d.B., R.C., V.D., F.F., D.F., O.F., S.F., N.H., G.I., K.K., V.K., E.K., R.D.L., R.M., P.R., J.R., R.S., D.S., I.T., D.v.V., Z.V., K.R.). We thank A. Cherp for permission to use Figure 2 , the entire modelling teams for the development of the used IAMs and participants of the IAMC 2023 conference for helpful feedback. S.F. and D.S. are supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF20241001) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan and JST ASPIRE project grant number JPMJAP2331.

Item Type:	Data
Additional Information:	Custom
Research Programs:	Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Assessment and Climate Change (IACC) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Sustainable Service Systems (S3) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions (TISS)
Depositing User:	Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited:	09 Jan 2025 14:32
Last Modified:	09 Jan 2025 14:32
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/20288

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