Contributions of countries without a carbon neutrality target to limit global warming

Zhou, J., Li, W., Ciais, P., Gasser, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647, Wang, J., Li, Z., Zhu, L., Han, M., He, J., Sun, M., Liu, L., & Huang, X. (2025). Contributions of countries without a carbon neutrality target to limit global warming. Nature Communications 16 (1) e468. 10.1038/s41467-024-55720-x.

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Abstract

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is a key negative emission technology for climate mitigation. Some countries have made no commitment to carbon neutrality but are viewed as potential BECCS candidates (hereafter, non-CN countries). Here we analyze contributions of these countries to global climate mitigation with respect to BECCS using an Earth system model with explicit representations of bioenergy crops. Switchgrass cultivation in these non-CN countries can further remove atmospheric CO2 by 9.1 ± 2.8 and 19.9 ± 5.2 PgC in the low-warming and overshot scenarios, resulting in an extra biogeochemical cooling effect of 0.01 ± 0.04 to 0.02 ± 0.06 °C. This cooling is largely counterbalanced by the biophysical warming, but the net effect is still an extra cooling. The non-CN countries play a more important role in the low-warming scenario than in the overshoot scenario, despite the inequality of temperature change among countries. Our study highlights the importance of a global system for climate mitigation.

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