Historical and Future Development of Greenhouse Gas Emission and Removal from the Land Use Sector from the View of Countries

Forsell, N., Araujo Gutierrez, Z., & Chen, M. (2025). Historical and Future Development of Greenhouse Gas Emission and Removal from the Land Use Sector from the View of Countries. FORMATH 10.15684/formath.24.001. (In Press)

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Abstract

Evaluating the progress towards global and national net-zero emissions goals requires a thorough assessment of historical emission levels and future targets. However, little attention has been paid to the actual reporting by the parties themselves. In this analysis, we examine parties reporting historical emissions and removals for Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector, as well as their commitments outlined in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the Long-term Low Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS). Our analysis reveals a worldwide decrease in historical net AFOLU emissions, spanning from 1990 to 2020. This decline primarily relates to increased removals in the LULUCF sector in non-Annex I countries. In 1990, global AFOLU emissions were recorded at 4,400 MtCO2eq, but by 2020, they had been reduced to approximately 2,200 MtCO2eq. Looking ahead, countries have committed to further reduce global net AFOLU emissions by 600–1,700 MtCO2eq by 2030 compared to 2020 levels. Moreover, fulfilment of the LT-LEDS commitment can provide an additional reduction of 2,300–3,400 MtCO2eq. By integrating these datasets, the study provides insights into the progress towards achieving climate goals, highlighting the importance of land-based mitigation strategies. The findings reveal disparities between Annex I countries and Non-Annex I countries, particularly in the ambition of the commitments and objectives. As countries begin to submit their biennial transparency reports to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), our recommendation is for countries to enhance transparency in reporting and communicating their progress of implementation.

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