A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit

Bevacqua, E., Schleussner, C.-F., & Zscheischler, J. (2025). A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit. Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02246-9. (In Press)

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Abstract

The temperature goals of the Paris Agreement are measured as 20-year averages exceeding a pre-industrial baseline. The calendar year of 2024 was announced as the first above 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels, but the implications for the corresponding temperature goal are unclear. Here we show that, without very stringent climate mitigation, the first year above 1.5 °C occurs within the first 20-year period with an average warming of 1.5 °C.

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