A Min-Max Approach to Reservoir Management

Orlovsky, S., Rinaldi, S., & Soncini-Sessa, R. (1982). A Min-Max Approach to Reservoir Management. IIASA Collaborative Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: CP-82-078

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Abstract

Analysis concerned with problems of the rational use of natural resources almost invariably deals with uncertainties with regard to the future behavior of the system In question and with multiple objectives reflecting conflicting goals of the users of the resources. Uncertainty means that the information available is not sufficient to unambiguously predict the future of the system, and the multiplicity of the objectives, on the other hand, calls for establishing rational trade-offs among them. The rationality of the trade-offs is quite often of subjective nature and cannot be formally incorporated into mathematical models supporting the analysis, and the information with regard to the future may vary with time. Then the challenge to the analyst is to elaborate a mathematical and computer implemented system that can be used to perform the analysis recognizing both the above aspects of real world problems.

These were the issues addressed during the summer study "Real-Time Forecast versus Real-Time Management of Hydrosystems," organized by the Resources and Environment Area of IIASA in 1981. The general line of research was the elaboration of new approaches to analyzing reservoir regulation problems and to estimating the value of the information reducing the uncertainties. Computationally, the research was based on the hydrosystem of Lake Como, Northern Italy.

This paper describes the application of an innovative approach to problems of reservoir management. This approach, which focuses on a risk-adverse regulation of a hydrosystem, takes into account both major aspects of this type of problem: uncertainty with regard to inflows of water into the system, and also multiple objectives which are faced by the manager. The theoretical basis of the approach has been described in another paper of this series of publications. This paper is more application-oriented, and contains also computational results for the regulation problem of Lake Como in Northern Italy.

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