Integrated water-population interactions framework: An application to assess water security in Iran

Soltani, Z., Abbasi-Shavazi, M.J., & Bagheri, A. (2024). Integrated water-population interactions framework: An application to assess water security in Iran. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 22 1-40. 10.1553/p-gjfn-7z5k.

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Abstract

While dynamic water security models related to food and livelihood security have advanced significantly in recent decades, the inclusion of demographic variables in these models is often limited to merely population growth. As many countries have either completed or are in the process of completing the demographic transition, population growth alone may no longer be the predominant demographic variable influencing water security models. Therefore, there is a discernible need for more comprehensive water security models to consider the simultaneous impact of various demographic variables on different aspects of water security. Inspired by the contemporary environmental demography perspectives, we introduce a generic integrated framework for integrated water-population interactions (IWPI) which explores the overlooked impacts of demographic transitions on different aspects of water security. Demographic shifts can impact food and water consumption and agricultural employment. Recognizing these dynamics is essential as countries advance through demographic transitions and face mounting pressures on water resources. The Integrated Water-Population Interaction (IWPI) framework was implemented in Iran through the Water-Population System Dynamics (WPSD) model. The model shows that population size, household composition and urbanization significantly affect domestic water consumption. It also reveals how changes in educational and occupational structures impact livelihood security and food self-sufficiency under water constraints. We introduce a novel population metric for water security assessment in Iran, offering policy-makers a tool to assess and address water insecurities that can affect the population in different ways. Our findings recommend realistic food self-sufficiency targets, flexible water resource planning and policies that integrate population dynamics with water, food and livelihood security to ensure sustainable outcomes in Iran.

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