International Trade Alternatives for 1990

Nagy, A. (1982). International Trade Alternatives for 1990. IIASA Collaborative Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: CP-82-071

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Abstract

This paper reports briefly on some of the results of a research project analyzing structural change in international trade in the period 1955-1977 and elaborating development alternatives for 1990. The model used includes eleven regions: three for planned economies, 4 - 4 for developed and developing countries and six commodity groups-, three for primary products and three for manufacturers.

The project had both methodological and practical objectives: methods were sought to study past and to project future structural change in international trade. It was aimed to reveal the feasibilities and limits within which international trade can develop and to work out characteristic alternatives in a consistent global framework for the main developed, developing and socialist regions.

The paper' presents the main assumptions and results of the six alternatives elaborated, three in constant prices assuming very different trade policy environments and three supposing different relative price changes. It also gives a brief account of the methods used in elaborating consistent alternatives corresponding to these assumptions.

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