Limits and Possible Consequences of the Development of Agricultural Production: Modeling Agricultural Situations in the Stavropol Territory, USSR

Nikonov, A.A., Nazarenko, V.I., Popov, V.N., & Chertov, V.G. (1982). Limits and Possible Consequences of the Development of Agricultural Production: Modeling Agricultural Situations in the Stavropol Territory, USSR. IIASA Collaborative Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: CP-82-068

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Abstract

The Food and Agriculture Program at IIASA focuses its research activities on understanding the nature and dimension of the world's food situation and problems, on exploring possible alternative policies which could improve the present situation in the short and long term, and on investigating the consequences of such policies at various levels - global, national and regional -- and in various time horizons.

One part of the research activities focussed on investigations of alternative paths of technology transformation in agriculture with respect to resource limitations and environmental consequences in the long term. The general approach and methodology developed for this investigation is being applied in several case studies on the regional level. The reason for the studies is not only to validate the general methodology but also to develop an applicable tool for detailed investigations for a particular region which could then be applied on a number of similar regions.

Furthermore, some specific aspects are being addressed in all these case studies which has been initiated within the IIASA's Food and Agriculture Program. This will allow the behavior of various systems to be compared, according to the selected aspects, and analyzed (in different social, economic and natural resource conditions) according to the selected aspects. One of these case studies is of Stavropol, USSR, and covers the whole of this region.

This paper describes the first phase of the study, the problems in this region, the aims for solving them, and the first draft of the methodology which is based on the general framework developed at IIASA.

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