Meeting European Union biodiversity targets under future land-use demands

Chapman, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1377-1539, Jung, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7569-1390, Leclere, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8658-1509, Boettiger, C., Derci Augustynczik, A.L., Gusti, M., Ringwald, L., & Visconti, P. (2025). Meeting European Union biodiversity targets under future land-use demands. Nature Ecology & Evolution 10.1038/s41559-025-02671-1.

Text EU_NRR_preprint_NEE.pdf - Accepted Version Restricted to Repository staff only until 28 October 2025. Available under License All Rights Reserved. Download (2MB)

Abstract

The European Union is committed to achieving ambitious area-based conservation and restoration targets in the upcoming decade. However, there is concern that these targets risk conflicting with socioeconomic needs, particularly for food, timber and bioenergy production. Here we develop an integrated spatial planning approach to identify where restoration, conservation and production allocation could maximize benefits to species conservation and climate mitigation, while acknowledging future land demands of the bio-economy. We show that, while changing production demands risk driving further biodiversity loss by 2030, when these demands are met alongside strategic restoration measures, as outlined by the EU Nature Restoration Regulation, future landscapes could improve the conservation status of populations for more than 20% of species of conservation concern while also increasing terrestrial carbon stocks. Our analysis demonstrates how critical the Nature Restoration Regulation is to achieving biodiversity targets and how integrated planning can align biodiversity policy objectives with future socioeconomic demands.

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