Towards net-zero emissions in global residential heating and cooling: a global scenario analysis

Mastrucci, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5611-7780, Boza-Kiss, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4005-2481, & van Ruijven, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1232-5892 (2025). Towards net-zero emissions in global residential heating and cooling: a global scenario analysis. Climatic Change 178 (4) e85. 10.1007/s10584-025-03923-6.

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Abstract

Accounting for 21% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, buildings play a crucial role in climate change mitigation. Demand-side policies offer large energy and GHG emission reduction potentials. The effects of broader sectoral policies at the global level beyond energy efficiency improvements, including sufficiency and structural changes, and their interaction with cross-sectoral climate policies are, however, still unclear. Here, we assess a comprehensive set of scenarios to reduce residential space heating and cooling emissions towards net-zero targets. We find that activity reductions, fuel shifts, and technological improvements can reduce current global residential space heating and cooling CO 2 emissions by 57% relative to a reference scenario in 2050. Combining these demand-side policies and stringent climate policies could result in CO 2 emission reductions up to 91% relative to the reference scenario in 2050. Neutralizing residual direct CO 2 emissions would require additional interventions targeting fossil fuel-based heating systems still in use in 2050.

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