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Fan, X., Wang, H., Winiwarter, W. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7131-1496, Zhao, Z., Bai, Z., & Ma, L.
(2025).
Peri-urban ammonia emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei decrease with restructuring of China's livestock industry.
Agricultural Systems 228 e104396. 10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104396.
Abstract
CONTEXT
Ammonia (NH3) emissions from livestock production significantly contribute to formation of PM2.5, posing a major environmental concern. Over the past two decades, compared to other regions in China, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei (BTH) region, has been suffering from high NH3 emissions due to increased urbanization and resulting intensified agricultural production. Uneven distribution of livestock leads to separation of crop and livestock, resulting in the waste of manure resources and environmental pollution.
OBJECTIVE
This study systematically investigates the 2000–2019 temporal-spatial pattern of NH3 emissions in the BTH region, with three focuses on: (1) analyzing the spatial distribution of livestock, the efficiency of livestock manure utilization, and the characteristics of NH3 emissions; (2) elucidating impact of restructuring livestock industry on NH3 emissions; (3) developing scenarios analysis to propose potential optimization pathways for reducing livestock NH3 emissions.
METHODS
We utilized the NUFER model to analyze livestock NH3 emissions in the BTH region. The distribution of livestock was further elucidated through a panel analysis, which identified key factors shaping their spatial arrangement. Scenarios analysis (S1: coupling crop and livestock, S2: spatial planning) was applied to explore optimization pathways of reducing NH3 emission.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
The study reveals an initial increasing trend in livestock NH3 emissions, peaking in 2015 at 511 kt NH3, followed by a sharp decline to 401 kt NH3 in 2019. Spatially, emission hotspots concentrated in the northeastern BTH region. Based on restructuring of China's livestock industry, the number of livestock started to decrease in areas designated as “urban sprawl” or for “ecological protection”, while the number of livestock in other land (land except those for urban sprawl and ecological protection) increased. The livestock moving outside of functional areas (urban sprawl areas and ecological protection area) has triggered a corresponding displacement of NH3 emission to non-functional areas (the other land) where population density was low. Scenario simulations demonstrate that optimized scenarios S1 and S2 achieved an increase in the recycling rate of manure nitrogen to 51 % and 52 %, reducing NH3 emissions by 200,000 and 240,000 tons. Optimizing the livestock distribution can increase the rate of manure returning to the field by enhanced coupling of crop and livestock.
SIGNIFICANCE
This study significantly advances our understanding of NH3 emissions dynamics, providing critical insights into the spatial-temporal patterns and key drivers of NH3 emission. By proposing and evaluating three optimization scenarios, it offers policymakers and stakeholders evidence-based pathways for effective environmental management.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Research Programs: | Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Pollution Management (PM) |
| Depositing User: | Luke Kirwan |
| Date Deposited: | 26 May 2025 07:37 |
| Last Modified: | 26 May 2025 07:37 |
| URI: | https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/20617 |
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