Optimal pathways toward a carbon-neutral power system considering low-carbon technologies in the Yangtze River Delta region

Zhang, Y., Ma, T., Yu, Y., & Ren, H. (2025). Optimal pathways toward a carbon-neutral power system considering low-carbon technologies in the Yangtze River Delta region. Journal of Management Science and Engineering 10 (2) 193-208. 10.1016/j.jmse.2025.03.001.

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Abstract

Because of its important role in China, many scholars have addressed the decarbonization of the Yangtze River Delta Region (YRDR). However, little work has been conducted on appropriate ways to transform the YRDR power system into a carbon-neutral system. This study develops an optimization model to explore the optimal pathways toward a carbon-neutral power system in the YRDR by 2060. In addition to traditional power generation technologies, the model includes carbon tax (or carbon emission cost), carbon capture and storage (CCS), forest carbon sink (FCS), renewable energy, and energy imports from outside the YRDR. The main findings are as follows: (1) in the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the YRDR's power system could reach its carbon peak by 2030, but it would not achieve carbon neutrality by 2060; (2) in the carbon neutrality scenario, FCS could mitigate 88 % of the carbon emissions of the YRDR power system; and (3) a high proportion of renewable energy could help transform the YRDR's power system to a carbon-neutral one, but would increase the cost by 44.8 %. The main policy implication is that implementing a carbon tax and promoting renewable energy, FCS, CCS, and other carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies should be considered together to transform the YRDR power system.

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